NJ-07: Lance Leads by 4

Monmouth University (9/30-10/2, likely voters):

Linda Stender (D): 39

Leonard Lance (R): 43

Michael Hsing (I): 2

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.8%)

It’s a tight race, which is no surprise in this swing district. The previous poll that we saw from this match-up, by Dem pollster Anzalone Liszt, gave Stender a 36-33 lead, with Republican-turned-Independent Hsing taking a more sizable 9% of the vote. The silver lining for Stender here is the district’s general congressional preference, with 37% of registered voters preferring Democratic control of Congress to 29% siding with the GOP. Among undecided voters, that margin is 29-17.

Both candidates are largely undefined, with 55% having no opinion of Lance, and 51% having no opinion of Stender — though Stender’s unfavorables are slightly higher (22%) than Lance’s (18%).

The poll also gives Barack Obama a 47-46 lead over McCain in the 7th District. Bush won this CD by a 53-47 margin in 2004.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

(Hat-tip: Blue Jersey)

8 thoughts on “NJ-07: Lance Leads by 4”

  1. Over 50% having no opinion of a candidate is bad for a second-time candidate, because it indicates that she’s failed to define herself effectively to voters.  I think Lois Murphy in PA-06 had the same issue in 2006. Of course, Lois Murphy had other problems too (running against an incumbent, and terrible TV ads), and just barely lost, so I’m not saying that this is a lost cause by any stretch. Still, it’s not a sign of effective campaigning.

  2. Both NJ-03/07 have been tougher challenges for us than people outside NJ anticipated all cycle.  This race is so tough because Lance is very well known and liked in a big part of this district, whereas Adler in the Third has a rough geography facing him in the form of Burlington and Ocean counties.  Adler is also getting hurt by the fact that he is a longtime state legislator, and the legislature in Jersey is about as popular as the flu.

    IMO, NJ-03 is a total toss-up given the district’s weird dynamics.  In the end, if both Adler and Stender prevail, it will probably be because Obama absolutely dominates in their districts and carries them over the finish line.

  3. They had the presidential race pegged at Obama-55, McCain 37

    Seems like a little much.  18 Points?  Kind of hard to believe ATM.  Seems like the DSCC poll might be the closest thing to reality.  (Dead-heat /w Franken edging Coleman)

  5. that these districts are naturally pretty Republican. The just look more Democratic than they are because lots of moderate Republicans took one look at George W. in 2000 and voted for Al Gore.  

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